Rule of Gambling

Now that Scott Kazmir is off to a great start at 5-2 with a 2.94 ERA and Victor Zambrano has just undergone season-ending surgery, it might be a good time to review how Jim Duquette, the Mets GM at the time, broke every single rule of gambling.

NEVER BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD

When the Mets traded Scott Kazmir, their farm system was almost completely bare. The only true blue-chip pitching prospects at the time were Phil Humber, who has since undergone Tommy John surgery, and Alay Soler, a Cuban defector who just made it to the U.S. this season and is currently pitching at AA. This year the Mets are throwing out such retreads as Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez as they wait for Mike Pelfrey and the next wave of prospects to be ready. Do you think they would rather have sent out Jose Lima – or Scott Kazmir, to try and sweep their arch-rival Braves last week?

NEVER BET WHILE INTOXICATED

Right around the time of the trade in 2004, the Mets had just swept their cross-town rivals, the New York Yankees, in an exciting three-game series. The Mets, who had been dead in this town since 2000, finally had some juice. They were close to first place and back on the back page. Of course, they still had a .500 record and not much talent. But Duquette, drunk on the city’s enthusiasm, wanted to “win now” no matter what the future cost.

DO YOUR HOMEWORK

You wouldn’t bet on a Falcons game without checking if Michael Vick was hurt, would you? Yet Mr. Duquette failed to adequately check into Victor Zambrano’s injury before the trade. Zambrano admitted he has been hurt the entire time he has been a member of the New York Mets. The week the trade was made, Zambrano skipped a start because of arm stiffness. Shouldn’t some alarms have gone off? Duquette blamed Tampa doctors for downplaying the injury, but you don’t need to be able to read medical charts to know something might be amiss.

LOOK FOR VALUE

Barbaro, who was such a good bet on Derby Day, might not be such a great bet for the Preakness. You won’t get enough in return. A lefty who throws 97 MPH has more value than a barely over .500 pitcher with control problems. Had Mr. Duquette waited until the off-season, he might have received Tim Hudson or Mark Mulder in return.

KNOW WHEN TO WALK AWAY

This is the one Mr. Duquette clearly missed. Tampa officials were said to be laughing to themselves when they realized what they were getting. Mr. Duquette should clearly have just walked away.

Next time you’re in Baltimore and you’re looking for someone to round out your poker game, look up Mr. Jim Duquette because there ain’t no sucker like the one who doesn’t know the rules.

Keep an eye out for the upcoming UK horse racing action in March

The four-day Cheltenham Festival dominates the March programme, but there’s also a busy programme of racing throughout the month including the ever-popular Imperial Cup day at Sandown plus the thrills and spills of the Midlands Grand National day at Uttoxeter. Flat fans, meanwhile, will need no reminding that the new turf season kicks off with the William Hill Lincoln at Redcar on March 25.
   
March begins with the newly-established Vodafone Gold Cup at Newbury on the 4th over two and a half miles. It’s something of a surprise to find such a valuable race staged so close to the Cheltenham Festival, and many trainers face the dilemma of deciding whether to run here or in either the Ryanair Chase or Racing Post Plate over similar distances at the Cheltenham Festival.

Twelve months ago a solid handicapper in the shape of Supreme Prince held on to land the valuable prize while in its inaugural year, the classy Isio was a well-backed winner. Absent since that season, Nicky Henderson’s gelding may well reappear in this race and would be an interesting contender.

On the same day Doncaster’s Grimthorpe Chase, a staying handicap over three and a quarter miles, has been transferred to Lingfield and may well be the chosen target of A Glass In Thyne, who won the Skybet Chase that had also been switched from Doncaster to Southwell in January. Maybe the changing fixture pattern will repeat itself again for Ben Pollock’s improving young chaser.

Champion trainer Martin Pipe has endured a stop-start season but plenty of punters will still be scouring the list of runners for the Imperial Cup at Sandown on March 11 in the hope of unearthing another Pipe hotpot for one of the season’s most keenly-contested handicap hurdles.

Pipe has won the race five times overall and has landed the prize three times in recent seasons. His mass of entries should be studied with the utmost care and may well include progressive sorts such as Buena Vista, Acambo and Desert Air.

The punishing combination of a fiercely-run race and a stamina-sapping finish up the demanding Sandown hill has often meant that lightly-weighted horses have held an advantage over their higher-weighted rivals, while waiting tactics have also proved successful for several of the recent winners. Making all in a race as competitive as this isn’t easy.

The Irish won this race with shock outsider Regency Rake, trained by Arthur Moore in 1999, and any runners from across the Irish Sea should be accorded the greatest respect. Jessica Harrington’s Studmaster, an easy winner of his last two races might take in this contest or wait for the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

On the same day at Sandown make a note also of the EBF Novices’ Hurdle Final, a race that often produces a star of the future. Plenty of classy young hurdlers will have this contest in their sights including the Lambourn-trained duo Mr Pointment, and Wogan while the NickGifford team intends to field Dusky Lord.

In recent years the Irish have held the Champion Hurdle on March 14, the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival, in a vice-like grip, winning five of the last seven renewals and looking at the somewhat weakened field for this year’s renewal it’s hard not to envisage the hurdling crown being whisked away once more across the Irish Sea.

Reigning title-holders boast a superb record in the Champion, but recent dual winner Hardy Eustace will have to banish a bout of the blues on his latest and disappointing effort in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle at Leopradstown. At the age of nine many think his time may have passed.

Plenty of horses that have been placed in the race previously have put that beneficial experience to good use by returning again the next year to run well. Ireland’s formidable trio of Brave Inca, Macs Joy and Al Eile, who finished third, fifth and seventh respectively in last year’s race will all be fancying their chances of winning this race a second time around.

The home-based challenge looks poor and has been hit hard by a spate of cruel injuries as well as the loss of form of emerging contenders such as Faasel and Penzance. Maybe the best of the British will be Arcalis, whose chances will be much increased by quick ground at Cheltenham, and a return to form for his stable.

Wednesday sees the two-mile heavyweights clash in the stirring championship that is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Predicting this year’s winner revolves around whether punters think dual winner and reigning champion Moscow Flyer is just a jaded member of the old guard ready to be swept away by young pretenders such as the classy Kauto Star and the improving Fota Island.

Disappointing on his two starts so far this season, the mighty Moscow Flyer is twelve years of age and you have to go back almost thirty years (1977) to find the last winner from that age group.

Kauto Star, by contrast, has youth on his side and hails from the Paul Nicholls stable that has the best recent record in this race with winners in 2004 and 1999, and four placed horses since 2000. Kauto Star is a worthy favourite to add to that auspicious tally.

Thursday’s championship race is the World Hurdle, formerly known as the Stayers’ Hurdle and rather like the Queen Mother Champion Chase, it features a past champion in Baracouda attempting to add a third title at the age of eleven in what must rank a one of the most open renewals in living memory.

But for the foot-and-mouth abandonment of 2001, Baracouda would already have three Stayers’ titles to his name but his task this year is made even harder by his advancing years and the presence of a strong domestic and Irish challenge from Mighty Man, No Refuge, Asian Maze and Golden Cross.

Friday March 17 is Cheltenham Gold Cup day and after the brilliant dominance of the chasing blue riband by three times victor Best Mate, this year’s renewal is one of the poorest and also most open in years and likely to produce a surprise result in this greatly-anticipated championship event.

The loss through injury of Kicking King, last year’s easy winner, has left the race wide-open but many backers will be looking to Monkerhostin, runner-up to the imperious Kicking King in the 2005 King George VI Chase, as a  possible winner. Seven of the last ten Gold Cup winners ran in the King George, making it a key trial for future Gold Cup heroes.

Cheltenham week closes with the Midlands Grand National day on March 18 and Ossmoses, a course winner last year, will be a leading fancy for the four-mile one-and-a-half furlong prize given his preference for running over long-distances in the mud. On the same card backers should watch out for Sue Smith’s tough mare Viciana in the EBF Mares’ Novices’ Chase Final.

March closes with the William Hill Lincoln run for the first time at Redcar (due to building work at Doncaster) and the draw is sure to have a big say in the outcome of this one-mile handicap, and the first big prize of the new turf Flat season.

Twelve months ago Newmarket trainer Sir Michael Stoute won this contest for the first time with Stream of Gold and bids to do the same again with the progressive King’s Majesty while James Fanshawe will be looking for easy ground if he’s to run Cesare, another young and improving horse.

Horse betting racing tips

I have been gambling since around the age of sixteen. I see it as a bit of a hobby and really enjoy playing poker and bragg. I go to the casino as often as I can and also love to go to the horse racing and to the greyhounds. This article is a story about when I lost a lot of money on a horse which was supposed to be a racing certainty.

As well as gambling, I love to have a few beers. It was during one of my nights out drinking when I met an old school friend. His name was John and we had not seen each other for around fifteen years. The conversation soon turned to talking about various forms of gambling and we realised that we had very similar interests.

John told me about some of his more profitable days and I responded by talking about some of mine. I must say his seemed far more impressive than what I had ever won. John then told me that he was very good friends with a local trainer and that he had some information that I might be interested in.

This night was becoming more interesting by the hour and I enquired as to what type of information he had. He started talking about a horse which the trainer and its connections thought could not lose. The horse was going to run in ten days time and was of a far higher class than what the other horses in the race would be. The trainer wanted the horse to have an easy victory so that it would gain some confidence from the race.

I told quite a lot of people about this horse over the next few days, this was to be a big mistake, a mistake I will not be repeating in the future.

The big race day arrived and I was very excited. I will not tell you how much I placed on the horse but lets just say it was a lot of money. The odds were five to one and I believed that this was going to be the easiest money I would have ever obtained.

The race in question was a three mile hurdle and with only three fences to go the horse was cruising. It was challenging the long term leader who was fading and being strongly ridden. Approaching the second to last fence the horse took the lead but disaster was to strike, yes it fell at this fence. I could not believe it, the horse would have won if only it could have jumped those last two fences.

These are my horse racing tips, beware there is no such thing as a racing certainty and only gamble what you can afford to lose. Gambling can be lots of fun and you can have some great days and nights out, I now treat it like a hobby and have decreased the amount I bet as I now have a family to support.

Sneek-peek at the horses to keep an eye out for during April

April is the month when the turf Flat season starts to hit full stride and for many punters the fixture that lights the blue touch paper is the Craven meeting at Newmarket in the middle of the month.

Before sampling the breezy delights of Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course, however, there’s the small matter of the ever-expanding Grand National meeting at Aintree that begins with a cracking card on April 6.

In recent years Aintree’s prestigious three-day meeting has begun to rival Cheltenham’s somewhat bloated four-day fixture for thrills and spills, and there’s little doubt that the highlight of the Merseyside racing calendar offers three days of top-class racing culminating in the running of the world’s most famous race on the final day.

As racecourses go, Cheltenham and Aintree are chalk and cheese: where the former is twisty and undulating with a punishing uphill finish, the latter is long and flat and essentially sharp in nature, and given the two contrasting course configurations it takes a good horse to win a race at the Cheltenham Festival and then do the same at Aintree.

Exactly a year ago at Aintree that’s exactly what Fota Island managed to do when adding the John Smith’s Red Rum Handicap Chase to the Grand Annual Chase that he had won in such superb fashion at Cheltenham just over two and a half week’s previously.

Not surprisingly there will be plenty of horses from this year’s Grand Annual that will be seeking compensation on Merseyside including Andreas, an early casualty in the Grand Annual when a well backed favourite and Green Tango, who made strong late headway in the same race despite seeming unsuited to Cheltenham. Aintree’s flatter track should suit.

In the Betfair Bowl Chase on the opening day, Cheltenham also-rans boast a healthy record and Gold Cup failures Monkerhostin and Beef Or Salmon could well be among those bidding to banish the blues of a poor Festival run, while the versatile Impek, a runner-up in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, may compete and is already a winner over slightly shorter on this sharp course earlier in the season.

In the big juvenile event, the John Smith’s Anniversary 4-Y-O Hurdle, several key players from Cheltenham’s Triumph Hurdle seem likely to figure including Fair Along, the Triumph Hurdle runner-up, who has already won a race over course and distance, along with Afsoun, who was under the weather in the Triumph, and rates a strong fancy.

On the second day - April 7 - the big race is the John Smith’s Melling Chase, and since its inception in 1989 this race’s roll-call of winners has featured the top chasers in training, who have successfully stepped up in trip after excelling at their specialist distance of two miles.

Remittance Man, Viking Flagship, Katabatic, Martha’s Son and Moscow Flyer are just  a handful of past two-mile champions who have added this valuable prize after being crowned two-mile champions with a victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Newmill, this year’s shock Queen Mother hero, won’t be running at Aintree but Kauto Star and Dempsey may line-up for this prize. The former, who was a warm favourite for the Queen Mother, fell early in that race bringing down the well supported Dempsey. If they have recovered from their tumbles, they should go close, while Irish raider and course winner Fota Island will be a likely contender too.

The unique Grand National fences come into play for the John Smith’s and Spar Topham Chase on the second day, and sound-jumping and well-seasoned campaigners do well in this hurly-burly contest, while in the John Smith’s Mildmay Chase it pays to look for a fresh horse that hasn’t endured the rigours of running in Cheltenham’s Royal & SunAlliance Chase, a race that tends to spoil their chances at Aintree.

Grand National day features the big race itself that stands alone as the major betting race of the year. The 2006 contest is dominated by Clan Royal, a runner-up in 2004 and last year’s easy winner, Hedgehunter. Since the course was modernised in the early nineties and the fences made easier and the landing sides raised, the classy and better horses have come to fore and dominated the event. Indeed, the National now has the look of just another long-distance steeplechase but one with plenty of history attached.

All eyes will be upon the fillies in the Shadwell Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes on the second day of Newmarket’s Craven meeting on April 19, but sadly in recent years this race has supplied few serious pointers towards the 1,000 Guineas, while further Classic clues may be on offer in the Craven Stakes for colts on April 20, the meeting’s final day. In 2004 the Barry Hills-trained Haafhd became the first colt since Tirol in 1990 to complete the Craven-2,000 Guineas double.

The search for Classic pointers switches to Newbury on April 22 when the Lane End Greenham Stakes takes place over 7f. In recent seasons Turtle Island, Celtic Swing and Victory Note have all landed Classics after scoring here and backers should pay this race plenty of respect in the colts’ Classic reckoning.

The Spring Cup Handicap at Newbury on April 22 is another race worth a second glance. Horses that have run well in the William Hill Lincoln during the previous month have an excellent record here, and any that come from Redcar following a prominent showing in the first big Flat handicap will surely warrant close consideration.

At Ayr on the same day there’s the Scottish Grand National to whet the appetite. One thing’s for sure and that’s any horse which has run in the Aintree Grand National must be avoided as such runners have an appalling record in the Scottish equivalent.

In 2004 Northern-trained Ryalux recorded a popular success and if the ground turns soft at the West of Scotland track plenty of folks will be rooting for another northern runner in Ossmoses, a strapping grey and stout stayer who all but landed the Midlands National over a similar marathon trip at Uttoxeter last month.

Twelve months ago trainer Paul Nicholls failed by a whisker to win this race with Cornish Rebel and the same trainer’s lightly-raced Ladalko has been kept fresh for this valuable prize. The Nicholls yard may also run Desert Quest, the County Hurdle winner, in the Scottish Champion Hurdle while Monet’s Garden, a runner-up in the Arkle Trophy Chase, bids to land a three-mile novices’ event at Ayr.

 The curtain comes down on April’s busy and varied month with the mixed jumps and Flat card at Sandown on April 29. The Betfred Gold Cup is the jump season’s final big handicap and fancied runners from the Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson stables should be noted. The latter almost landed this prize plus a valuable bonus a year ago with Juveigneur and he could well become a serious candidate again.

Paul Nicholls should also be the trainer to watch in the Betfred Celebration Chase, with either Kauto Star or Andreas, two of the stable’s crack team of two-mile chasers, likely to land the honours. On the Flat the Betfred.com Mile Stakes is the highlight, and horses that ran well in Newmarket’s Earl of Sefton Stakes earlier in the month hold a good record in this Group Two contest.

Some tips on how to win big at the sports game

If you are looking to try your luck at sports betting then know that you do have greater odds of winning in this game than you would in roulette or craps.  While those are games of chance, sports betting is a game of predicting a foreseeable outcome.  Here are some tips on how to win big at the big game.

9. Place Bets on the Right Sports Book

Statistics suggest that placing bets with the correct sports book will make a big difference, and increase the odds of winning by 3%.

8. Bet Against the Public

There are some that claim that “fading the public” can be profitable.  This has led many bettors to bet on the other team than is predicted. 

7. Do Your Homework Before the Game

The best way to win sports betting is to research all aspects of a game, especially circumstances and data that others would not consider.  Not even bookies will have time to research every sport and every game.  Therefore, if you can create a niche for yourself, you could become an expert on a smaller conferences and find yourself winning big money.

6. Choose the Underdog at Home

Statistically speaking, it’s a good idea to bet on an underdog at home.  A team will put forth their best effort at home stadium and underdogs have a way of triumphing over the odds in general.  Using this strategy you may beat the odds too.

5. Bet at Just the Right Time

Bettors who bet on underdogs usually bet early.  Therefore, if you are betting on an underdog try and bet late.  If you are betting on the favorite then bet early.  Going against the grain in sports gambling is often a smart move.

4. Make Arbitrage Bets

You can make money on sure bets regardless of the outcome of a game with arbitrage bets.  The advantage of these bets is that it doesn’t matter what the outcome of a game is, since the only bet you made was on a specific happening.

3. Square or Sucker Lines

Many betters try to stay away from square lines (that is, lines that are designed to lure public opinion into betting a certain way) and in the end, can even make money off these phony wagers if they can closely monitor the betting percentages.  

2. Never Gamble While Drinking

This may be common knowledge to some, a great shock to others.  However, when you drink an alcoholic beverage, your judgment will be significantly clouded.  A drink may also give you that extra “courage” to make a rash and expensive decision.

1.Manage your Gambling Money

Another lesson in common sense that is often ignored when it comes time to put down a wager: never bet more than you can afford to lose.  In fact, it is recommended that you set aside a portion of your money for betting and to stick with it, regardless of your winnings or losses.  Lastly, try to spread your total among a few smaller bets rather than risk it all on one sure thing that may not be as predictable as everyone thinks.

Which horse to bet and on which horse not to bet?

People assume that betting on horses is based on luck, and that the only method to win money while doing it is to get inside information. By inside information, people generally refer to match fixes or some other knowledge that one or more of the horses is sick. This might have been true once, but in todays modern world where the gambling is institutionalized and checked daily, this sort of thing rarely (if ever) occurs.

So What Then? Should you gamble according to unexplainable hunches and simply hope for the best?
There is a better option. Base your bets on information that you collect about the different horses and then make a calculated guess. I have listed here the 8 Golden Rules you should look out for when judging how good a particular horse will fair in the race you are going to bet on.

1. Check out the weather, and then check how the horses in the race fared accordingly. Certain horses have a tendency to outlast others in the rain, while others charge unstoppable to the finish line on cloudy days. Why? I don't know, but what's important is that its true, and it has worked for me.

2. Do not think that older horses run slower than three-year old ones as the season comes to a close. This is just not true. What you have to check is how many races each horse did run. Sometimes horses compete in too many races and this slows them down, but this has nothing to do with age.

3. Surprisingly, though you might think that there is a direct ratio between the weight of the jockey and how fast the horse can run, but this is not true. Since most of the jockeys weigh approximately the same, its actually the relatively heavier ones who manage to win.

4. Similarly, heavier horses can run faster than lighter ones, but only up to a point. A colt weighs about a hundred pounds more than fillies and thus they are more likely to win long distance races.

5. Just because a horse has new blinkers does not mean that the horse will run faster. I know this sounds crazy, but a friend I met at the horse-track offered me this piece of advice, and I had to refute it to spare the heartache from any who do fall for it.

6. Check the pedigree of the horses. Remember to keep whatever information you find. You can even buy one of the books on certain horses at your local bookstores. After you have gathered all the relevant information keep in mind that a colt doesn't need as much of a pedigree as a filly to run very fast.

7. Don't rely too much on pedigree at the lower class races. This is the place where those horses with a weak pedigree tend to shine.

8. Female jockies are starting to make a name for themselves, so don't underestimate them when they race. Lately, they have been winning admirably.

Use the above 8 Golden Rules of Betting on Horses the next time you go to the track or enter an online sportsbook to place your bet so that your wager will have a better chance of winning.